As Conclave unfolds, cardinal after cardinal vies for the votes necessary to be elected pope, yet each slowly sees their campaign crumble from past scandal or current controversy. In the end, one cardinal emerges victorious.
Ironically, this sequence of events has become all too real in this year’s awards cycle, one where multiple major contenders for Best Picture face controversy that threatens to derail their campaigns for the prestigious award. At some point in the past month, almost half the films nominated in that category had a legitimate pathway to winning.
Now, after some critical industry awards were given out this past week, we finally have a frontrunner. But that wasn’t always the case.
Flashback to January 23, Oscars nominations morning, when Emilia Pérez received a leading 13 Oscar nominations. The success was anticipated for Emilia Pérez, which was clearly revealing itself to be the industry’s most beloved film of the year, despite receiving a much more sour response from critics and audiences. Emilia Pérez hadn’t skipped a beat all awards season, scoring important nominations for the SAG, PGA and DGA awards and winning the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, where it defeated the de facto frontrunner at the time, Anora.
Even though there was some negative buzz surrounding the film’s depiction of Mexico and transgender identity, Emilia Pérez was enjoying such success within the industry that it looked ready to run away with the Oscar. Then, several tweets from leading star Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced, which has now derailed the entire campaign.
The comments were published on Gascón’s now-deleted account on X and have been widely condemned for being Islamophobic, xenophobic and outright racist.
Gascón issued an apology in response to the controversy, where she wrote “I can no longer allow this campaign of hate and misinformation to affect neither my family nor me anymore…The more you try to sink me, the stronger it will make me. The greater the victory will be.”
Netflix, the studio distributing Emilia Pérez, has already removed Gascón from newly released promotional materials, and Gascón wasn’t in attendance at the Critic’s Choice, PGA or DGA awards ceremonies.
For a film running on a platform of progressiveness with Gascón potentially being the first trans actor to win an Oscar, this controversy immediately stalled any momentum Emilia Pérez was building into the PGA awards and has done serious damage to its Best Picture-winning hopes.
Another leading Best Picture contender, Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, has come under scrutiny for A.I. use in post-production.
The Brutalist used Respeecher, an A.I. software, to improve the Hungarian accents of Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones in post-production. However, The Brutalist isn’t the only film that has used this technology. In fact, Emilia Pérez used the same software to deepen Gascón’s voice for certain scenes.
Corbet has been quick to emphasize that A.I. was used as merely a finishing touch on the work of Brody and Jones, but in an industry that only recently went on strike – in part because of concerns related to artificial intelligence – the use of AI may still dissuade voters.
Brody and Jones both face fierce competition within the acting categories, although Brody was regarded as the frontrunner in Best Leading Actor. Now, Timothée Chalamet could look to take control of the race at the SAG Awards, a key indicator for the Academy Awards.
Sean Baker’s Anora also hasn’t managed to escape all controversy. Baker, with the consent of the actors, did not hire an intimacy coordinator to be present on set during the filming of explicit scenes, which has been criticized by some for being an abuse of power. Nevertheless, the early-season favorite has quietly been having an extremely solid season, picking up all the nominations it was expected to get at various awards ceremonies despite the loss to Emilia Pérez at the Golden Globes.
Then, Anora won big, first winning Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards (in spite of a somewhat middling performance on the night, including losing Best Original Screenplay to The Substance) before defeating the controversy-laden Emilia Pérez at the PGA Awards. Additionally, Sean Baker upset Brady Corbet at the DGA Awards – Corbet had been expected to win – and now Baker may be the favorite to win the Oscar as well.
The PGA Award for Best Picture has a particularly strong link to the eventual Oscar winner, with the past four winners all going on to win the Oscar in their respective years.
While Anora is now clearly the favorite, the SAG Awards, the final indicator awards ceremony before the Oscars, could still boost another film into contention. The winner of the SAG Award for Best Ensemble has also won the Oscar for Best Picture in four out of the last five years.
Given the controversy surrounding many of the presumed leading titles, films such as A Complete Unknown, Conclave (fresh off a BAFTA win for Best Picture) or even Wicked all stand a chance of taking home the SAG Ensemble award and emerging as a feel-good Oscar winner that voters feel comfortable embracing.
As of right now, the Academy Award for Best Picture is Anora’s to lose. However, if this season’s taught us anything it’s that come Oscar evening, anything is possible.
